The two phases of the bear market (Madame Guillotine strikes)

Guillotine strikes If you’ve been following our 8 timeless principles of investing carefully then you’ve successfully avoided the initial market crunch we’ve been warning about throughout the duration of this blog. This has been the fastest moving bear market in history for the US. The Aussie market also recorded a 32% decline in stock valuationsContinue reading “The two phases of the bear market (Madame Guillotine strikes)”

Groupthink or groupstink? (Devil take the hindmost)

The madness of men ‘I can calculate the movement of stars, but not the madness of men’. Isaac Newton (apparently said after he lost his fortune). The importance of this is not the quote itself. The importance is that Newton learned the lesson the hard way – that is, after he lost his fortune. AsContinue reading “Groupthink or groupstink? (Devil take the hindmost)”

What are your expected returns? (earnings vs. capital gains)

Expected returns How do how do you think your portfolio will perform over the next few years? Do you have a figure in mind? 10% per annum? 15%? 5%? Most people don’t have an expected return, and if they do, it’s not always based on any solid understanding of markets, but derived from averages, whatContinue reading “What are your expected returns? (earnings vs. capital gains)”

Winning systematically with Fortune’s formula

When timing is everything When Ed Thorp, the famous billionaire money manager, wanted to test his gambling theory of how to beat the dealer, he started out by card counting at the casinos. In those days casinos only used a 52-card deck, and when the deck was exhausted the house shuffled and started again. ThisContinue reading “Winning systematically with Fortune’s formula”

Value investing for income (NOT speculating)

Investing for income Many global stock markets have moved into the rampant speculation phase of the cycle, whereby nearly all of the focus and talk is about speculating for capital growth. It will end nastily, as it always does. But how does one invest for income in the meantime, while patiently waiting for sanity toContinue reading “Value investing for income (NOT speculating)”

Separating the signal from the noise (speculating versus investing)

Signal versus noise We’re usually reticent to provide running stock market commentary – it’s a fool’s errand, and mostly it’s just noise anyway. However, we do believe investors should be wary of the current market signal. Ben Graham famously outlined the difference between investing and speculating thus: Graham didn’t rule out speculating altogether, provided thereContinue reading “Separating the signal from the noise (speculating versus investing)”

Criticism of ‘Low Rates, High Returns’

Many ways to invest It’s important to reiterate that there’s no ‘right’ way to invest, only the right way for you, your present situation, goals, and personality type. In our book we outline what we believe to be the optimal approach in the current environment, but there are always other ways to invest. The mostContinue reading “Criticism of ‘Low Rates, High Returns’”