Sequence of returns: risks and opportunities

Don’t be average… If someone told you to cross a river because it’s 4-feet deep ‘on average’ you’d be justifiably upset if it turned out to be 8-feet deep in the middle with strong cross-currents. It’s a bit the same when it comes to so-termed ‘average returns’ from investments. It’s often said that you mightContinue reading “Sequence of returns: risks and opportunities”

Time in the market, or timing the market?

Nobody knows anything Although we like to weave convenient narratives to explain history, the belief that life is linear and predictable can be a dangerous fallacy. In real time, the world is random and unpredictable, and heavily impacted by rare and totally unpredictable outlier outcomes, known as ‘Black Swan’ events. The dirty little secret ofContinue reading “Time in the market, or timing the market?”

Yes, you can buy low…and sell high

The bipolar moods of Mr. Market ‘Buy low, sell high’ is one of those sage pieces of advice that just sounds too simple, but it can be done. Stock markets are mean reverting, so although they swing higher and lower through the cycles, over time markets tend to revert towards a long-term mean or averageContinue reading “Yes, you can buy low…and sell high”

Welcome to Low Rates, High Returns.

“Rule #1: Don’t lose money. Rule #2: See rule #1”. ——— Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway. Net worth: A$125 billion. This is the first post on our new blog; stay tuned for many more. Please note the information on this blog and in the book is general in nature, and it can’t take into account yourContinue reading “Welcome to Low Rates, High Returns.”